Clinton in a Box

		       by J. Orlin Grabbe


	Bill Clinton has now clarified his policy on the Middle 
East.  It's called "Saddam in a Box".  It sounds like a new 
Tyson Foods product that one might find in the supermarket 
next to the frozen chicken parts.  And the policy's logic is 
about as compelling as the latter would be appetizing.

	 Let's begin with the assassination of Rabin in Israel.  
Implicated are Israeli security agencies connected to Ariel 
Sharon.  (Sharon's agents are run out of the U.S., including 
the Mossad's most valued asset in Chicago, who has his legs 
broken with a baseball bat.)  Despite evidence of their 
involvement in the assassination, Likud wins the election and 
begins to dismantle the peace agreement partly worked out 
with Yassir Arafat and Hafez Assad. (Sharon is rewarded 
with a cabinet post in the new Likud government.)  

	The U.S. and France, meanwhile, put intense pressure 
on Syria to give up any claim to the Golan heights.  Hafez 
Assad sends out a "don't tread on me" statement:  Syrian-
trained terrorists cause the Western states blackout in the 
U.S., and shoot down TWA Flight 800--a flight from New 
York en route to Paris, carrying both U.S. and French 
citizens.  Both governments (via the FBI in the U.S. case) are 
warned in advance. Clinton is advised to strike back by taking 
out a handful of top Syrian government officials.  

	But it is not going well for Clinton.  The Starr 
investigation is looking increasingly ominous. Clinton fears an 
October Surprise. Democrats in his own party, including a 
group lead by Robert Strauss, urge his resignation for the 
good of the country.  Other (national security) agencies, 
concerned with his increasingly coke-induced erratic behavior, 
place even more pressure on him to resign.  So Clinton 
decides to divert attention with a military operation in the 
Middle East.  He wants something in the news headlines every 
day--a war, not a covert operation. He is advised that to 
bomb Syria would result in a U.S. domestic terrorist 
nightmare.  So Clinton looks at Iran, an easy bombing target, 
and one whose agents have not shown the same skills in 
guerrilla warfare.

	First, he secretly orders units from the 101 Airborne 
at Ft. Campbell, Kentucky, to Saudi Arabia.  William Perry 
shows up in the Middle East and announces Iranian terrorists 
may be behind the Dhahran bombing ("Perry Predicts 
'International Connection,' Possibly Iran, to Saudi Arabia 
Bombing," The Washington Post, August 3, 1996)  
Newspapers publish lavish charts showing the location of 
"Iranian terrorist camps".  Various commentators beat the 
drums for an Iranian connection to both the Dhahran bombing 
and the downing of TWA Flight 800.   But then Clinton is 
shown an article in Janes Intelligence Review describing 
Iran's control over the Straits of Hormuz, and its ability to cut 
off the flow of oil.  A world oil crisis would be bad for the 
stock market and the up-coming election.  Clinton pauses to 
reflect, and to look for another bombing target.

	Then Clinton takes a choo-choo ride to the 
Democratic National Convention in Chicago, and arrives just 
in time to be pounded by the Dick Morris resignation--the 
same Dick Morris depicted in Time as Clinton's closest 
advisor, his brain.  (Hillary announces that she is afraid that 
Dick Morris is "depressed" and "suicidal",  because she is 
secretly plotting with I3 to assassinate him.)  

	Saddam, meanwhile, noting the U.S. rattling its saber 
at Iran, takes the opportunity to move into the Kurdish zone, 
to put down an Iranian-supported Kurdish faction, and also 
some CIA-supported ones.  Clinton says, Aha!  The White 
House announces that the U.S. is watching Saddam's actions 
with grave concern, and are thinking of sending more troops 
there (even while more units of the 101 Airborne are secretly 
dispatched to Saudi Arabia).  All the U.S. allies, excepting 
Britain and Kuwait, refuse to go along with this charade.  The 
U.S. bombs a few targets anyway, expands the no-fly zone, 
and pronounces the action a success.  

	The nation cheers, then realizes nothing has actually 
happened, except a U.S.-assisted boost to Saddam Hussein's 
power, and deteriorated relations with Turkey, France, and 
Saudi Arabia.  Bill decides to escalate again, sending over a 
contingent of F-117 Stealth fighters to Kuwait, along with all 
their expensive support equipment and personnel.  There they 
sit on the ground, doing nothing.  He announces soldiers from 
Ft. Hood, Texas, will be arriving in Kuwait, without clearing 
the action first with Kuwait.  (They read about it in the paper.)  
Then Saddam says he will not oppose the expanded no-fly 
zone, cutting off Clinton's legs. Clinton is all dressed up for 
war, with nowhere to go. 

	The Middle Eastern phase of Clinton's re-election 
campaign has turned into a military and international relations 
disaster.  Meanwhile, on the home front, while Syria deploys 
troops to the border with Israel, Clinton has more meetings 
with security agencies and Starr representatives.  Clinton is 
informed he either resigns soon, or will suffer extremely nasty 
consequences.  The ante is upped the longer he attempts to 
stay.  Leaving will not spare him prosecution.  But it will 
probably spare him some of the time, and the conditions under 
which, he vacations in the slammer.  Clinton, however, is 
paranoid.  He will lose much (not all) of his Secret Service 
protection if he resigns. 

	So Clinton's in a box.  If he stays he may be dead, 
and if he resigns he may be dead.  He wants a guarantee that 
if he resigns the same thing doesn't happen to him that 
happened to Ron Brown.  

	Will he go or will he stay?  Either way, a hard rain's 
a-gonna fall.

September 19, 1996
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